Pictured: Jim Wood-Smith
Emerging market giants like Jaguar Land Rover's Indian parent
Tata are 'stamping their names' across UK business, a new report
claims.
And it warns that UK counterparts are not doing enough in the
other direction.
Produced by wealth management firm Williams de Broë, its
author, head of research Jim Wood-Smith, cautioned that
British-based companies were not capitalising on the rapid economic
expansion of emerging markets, generating in aggregate only 13 per
cent of their revenues from the developing world.
In contrast, investment into the UK by emerging market companies
was booming, with nearly £83 billion being invested here last
year by groups such as Tata - now the UK's largest industrial
employer thanks to its £9.6 billion investment in buying
Jaguar, Land Rover, Corus Steel and Brunner Mond (formerly ICI), as
well as Tetley Tea.
"Tata is just one example of the emerging market giants who are
stamping their names on almost every area of business," said Mr
Wood-Smith.
"The dichotomy for multinational companies based in Europe is
that while they grapple with low domestic growth, sovereign debt
issues and banking crises on their doorsteps, their competitors
based in China are hungry and ambitious."
The report, Vision 2012, WDB's annual review of investment
themes for the coming year, also highlights the stick or twist
prospects facing private investors - either earning negative real
returns on their portfolios for many years to come or having to
accept higher degrees of volatility in their investments.
Mr Wood-Smith predicts that UK interest rates will remain at or
around their current very low levels for many years, 'possibly
running into decades'.
As a result, savings incomes are likely to be below the rise in
the cost of living of the majority of the country's
population.
"The conundrum that we all face is that the returns on 'safe'
assets will struggle to be positive in real terms for much of the
coming decade. In contrast, 'risky' assets will provide a higher
and growing income stream, combined with an ever-more volatile and
random capital performance. In order for portfolios to provide
returns that are more than paltry, investors must take on greater
risk at a time when the volatility of equity markets is highly
likely to become ever greater. It is a difficult circle to
square."
Mr Wood-Smith believes2012 will be another year of 'spectacular'
market moves, driven in part by the increasing influence of
exchange traded funds (ETFs) and other similar products. "We all
need to accept that this volatility is a fact of life in modern
markets. Low cost and efficient ETFs may be, but this is a
double-edged sword allowing larger and more frequent short-term
trading to occur. This can and now does happen in a matter of
minutes, rather than days or weeks. The cat is out of the bag on
this one. Regulators talk of attempting to control some of the more
esoteric and complex structures behind these funds - moves that we
support - but this will not change the nature of the
beast."
As to the London Olympics, the report suggests that hosting the
Games may not prove as great an economic boost as hoped, in part
due to the prevalence of foreign and/or privately-owned companies
amongst the contractors and suppliers, thus denying private
investors the opportunity to invest directly in listed businesses
participating in the Olympic expenditure.