With news that the level of unsecured borrowing per UK household
has fallen by an average £500, the majority of Midlanders say
they are less likely to borrow in the year ahead, according to
PwC's annual report on the UK consumer credit industry: 'Precious
Plastic 2011'. The report's findings together with news from
the Bank of England that mortgage lending fell to its lowest level
since 2008 in Q4 2010 indicate that the borrowing habits of UK
consumers are changing significantly.
The majority of Midlanders (68%) said they would not be willing
to borrow in order to fund large purchases in the year ahead and
one in three (31%) are concerned about being able to meet
repayments on their existing debt. According to PwC, attitudes to
borrowing are being affected by weak levels of consumer confidence
- 23% of Midlanders admitted to being concerned about losing their
job in the coming year, more than in any other region of the UK,
except the North, where a similar level of concern about job
security was reported. The majority of Midlanders (57%) are also
expecting their pay to reduce or remain frozen throughout 2011.
Mark Smith, regional chairman at PwC in the Midlands, said:
"It is clear that attitudes to borrowing are shifting in the
region and this is being compounded by weak levels of consumer
confidence, mainly due to concern about job security and the
widespread freeze on pay. As a result, many households in the
region are seeking to reduce the amount that they borrow.
"Consumers in the region are returning to 'jam jarring', whereby
they shun large loans and open ended credit cards in favour of
smaller, shorter term borrowing, in an effort to control their
borrowing.
"Therefore it is not surprising that we have seen average
unsecured credit (ie credit cards and personal loans) fall by some
£500 over the last year to £8,000 per household - a
trend we predict will continue over the next few years with a
further fall of up to £300 in 2011."
"However, we believe that interest rates could rise by 2 to 3%
by 2015, meaning the average UK household would need to find an
extra £1,800 a year for interest payments alone - a
significant proportion of their disposable income."
According to the report, those consumers that do wish to borrow
are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain credit - supply
will continue to be constrained and many of the mainstream lenders,
seeking to reduce credit losses, are focusing on only those with a
stronger credit history. At the same time it is likely that credit
scores have deteriorated across the UK, meaning that an increasing
number of consumers will find themselves unable to borrow from the
mainstream lenders, effectively forcing them into the 'underbanked'
category.
Mark Smith, regional chairman of PwC in the Midlands,
continued:
"There is strong evidence that the type of credit demanded by
consumers is changing. Point of sale products, payday loans, home
credit providers and pawnbrokers will all play their part in
providing for consumers but the cost of credit still needs simpler
explanation."
The UK's cooling passion for plastic continued as the number of
credit cards in circulation fell by some 1.5 million compared to
2009, to the lowest levels since 2003. By contrast, in 2010, debit
cards have continued to gain in popularity, overtaking cash for the
first time.
Demand and supply have both played a part in the decline in the
use of credit cards. Consumers are focused on paying off their
debts and are planning to save more, while lenders remain selective
in terms of whom they lend to.
In PwC's consumer credit confidence survey, 41% of people want
to put money away compared to 35% at the end of 2009. Within these
figures a startling number of young people indicated a willingness
to save, with over 70% of 18-24 year olds intending to save more
over the next 12 months - more than double the proportion of over
45s.
Further regulation of the consumer credit market is in prospect
- and there is talk of potential interest rate caps. Whilst this
may be of benefit to some consumers, it could potentially make the
provision of credit to many uneconomical.
Total household borrowing in 2010 fell by £6 billion to
£1.45 trillion. Within this amount, secured lending (mainly
mortgages) actually grew slightly on the previous year to around
£1.24 trillion. However, with the Bank of England stating
that Q3 of 2010 saw a 'marked decrease' in mortgage lending by
banks, we can expect this figure to decrease in 2011. The more
significant change has come in the decline in unsecured credit,
with outstanding balances down £13 billion on 2009 to
£214 billion, a trend that looks set to continue.