The demise of the small shop is set to continue apace, according to an insolvency expert.

And John Kelly, regional managing partner in the Birmingham office of Begbies Traynor, also warned business not to think the recession was over despite the most recent GDP figures showing a 0.1 per cent rise.

His warning came as the British Retail Consortium revealed high street sales had suffered their worst January since comparable records began in 1995.

In a regional update on the West Midlands, Mr Kelly noted how one property expert recently predicted that in the next ten years retail would be dominated by about 12 major players, putting the future of high streets and shopping centres under threat. 

He said: "With still high city centre rents and rates, it is difficult to see how small independent retailers can survive. This view is underlined by the fact that nearly all the majors have got through the recession relatively unscathed. So, watch out retailers."

On the wider economy, he continued: "We are told we are officially out of recession.  Don't believe it! 

"As many commentators have already observed, the UK economy cannot continue to be 'shored up' by public spending. However, politics is unlikely to allow the spending to stop before an election. 

"Beware the 'tides' of the election. There is no doubt in my mind that regardless of who wins the brakes will have to be put on public spending afterwards. Will that create a 'double dip' recession - quite possibly? I would predict 2010 will be even more challenging than 2009."

Elsewhere, Mr Kelly said public spending cuts would further hit construction. "With no major movement expected in 2010, house builders will continue to struggle, but at least land can now be purchased at more realistic levels. 

"In 2009, we did not see significant failures in the professional sector, but as a sector it was clearly under strain. If the economy is as slow to improve as we believe it will be, some professional practices will have no more notches in their belts to pull in and could fail. 

"As to other sectors, manufacturing, automotive, transport, and leisure will continue to struggle." 

Consequently, said Mr Kelly, it was ever more important for firms to concentrate on tight control of costs, up to date management information, cash control, and strategic alliances or mergers.

"More than ever take early professional advice.  It is our consistent message, which is especially true during a recession as at least it gives a business options for its survival."