Deal making could see the start of a "marked uptick" in just a
few months, a Midland expert has predicted.
And that could precipitate banks into pushing through a spate of
forced sales, suggests Malcolm Cook, corporate finance partner with
PKF Accountants & business advisers in the region.
Meanwhile, overseas companies are on the prowl, looking to pick
up bargains.
His comments came as a UK-wide survey conducted by the firm
showed mergers and acquisitions activity in the first half of the
year continuing to suffer in the wake of the global financial
crisis.
The first six months saw 257 transactions worth £21.1
billion come to the market, a 66 per cent reduction in terms of
deal volumes and a 61 per cent fall in valuations compared to the
first half of 2008.
Mr Cook said activity continued to wane in the Midlands too -
albeit the survey revealed that 80 per cent of the few deals which
had happened were worth less than £100 million, the sort of
sector where the region has traditionally been strong.
"There has been a notable lack of new situations coming to the
market and this is likely to continue over the course of the summer
months," said Mr Cook.
And, warning of an on-going lack of realism among sellers, he
added: "I would have thought that the deal making environment in
the region and indeed the rest of the UK would have improved more
than it has done.
"However, looking forward, a marked uptick in regional M&A
activity is likely around the fourth quarter. Once there is a
perception that things cannot get worse and that the economy is on
the road to recovery I would expect buyers to become more confident
and start actively looking.
"Distress-driven transactions are not as prevalent in the
Midlands as elsewhere in the UK as lenders have been reluctant to
pressurise disposals from struggling companies. But increased
interest on the buy-side could change that as banks may become more
willing to force asset disposals from debtor firms."
Mr Cook continued: "With sterling remaining relatively weak
against the euro and the dollar, cross-border acquirers continue to
actively eye regional companies.
"Indeed, with valuations falling, the current economic climate
represents a good opportunity for stable, cash-rich corporates in
the United States, mainland Europe and beyond to establish a
foothold in the UK market.
"In benign economic times, typically ten per cent of the deals
we work on would be cross-border in nature. However, the figure is
currently closer to 50 per cent as we are seeing more foreign
acquirers looking to take advantage of low valuations and a still
favourable exchange rate."
The overall picture was actually probably worse - the two
largest M&A transactions in the fist half were the Government
bailouts of Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB.
But the survey says green shoots are there - resilient
mid-market activity, lenders beginning to provide acquisition
finance again and global financial markets starting to
stabilise.
While the hotels and leisure sector had seen precipitous
declines, there were tentative signs of a turnaround.
There were hopes for a pick-up in business services, the food
sector was "back on the menu", hard hit real estate was showing
"plentiful value-for-money opportunities for firms with cash" while
even with manufacturing the worst trading conditions were probably
behind it.